Box office analysis has long focused on the US opening weekend to see whether a big film has legs. Now, things are shifting.
Using examples from last year, we are going to look at two big box-office forces driving change. As well as what the industry may need to consider to keep up. But first, let’s look at why this shift is significant.
Opening Weekend Importance?
With many films marketed months before their release, the opening weekend is when interest is, theoretically, at its highest, due to the prominence it has been given. Barring slow-release periods, subsequent weeks will likely see diminishing returns as other films take customers’ interest. So the opening domestic weekend is seen as the point for maximum returns. It can then set the tempo for press coverage around the film, which can drive future engagement.
However, this mindset arguably contributes to a self-fulfilling cycle. Commentators have noted that attaching negative labels to a film, e.g. “disappointment” or “bomb”, early in its theatrical life, creates a negative association that can follow a film forever. Affecting box office, and therefore future licensing and home media sales.
Nevertheless, as Stephen Galloway told Variety, “based on the cost of movies and inflation, reliance on opening weekend is Hollywood’s only strategy. There is no alternative.” But is that true?.
Word of Mouth
Cinemas have faced an uphill battle to bring in customers post-COVID. Especially when everyone knows a film will be available to stream soon after it releases. Big properties still attract crowds, but titles with little to no name recognition, especially those with big budgets, are more unpredictable. Even if they have acclaimed directors behind them. This is where word of mouth comes in. Many have theorised that current audiences are more discerning about spending a night out at the cinema, potentially due to how much it costs. Thus, they will likely wait for positive word of mouth before watching a specific film. This means it can take longer for original titles to make their mark. However, when positive word of mouth can be hugely impactful.
To analyse this claim, let’s look at two films from last year: Sinners and One Battle After Another. Both were made by acclaimed directors playing outside genres they were used to. And both had long tails at the domestic box office.
According to Box Office Mojo, Sinners stayed in the domestic box office top 20 consistently for around 13 weeks. It also didn’t drop below half its first week’s takings until its fourth week. Which is an incredible feat. One Battle After Another, while not as successful, remained in the domestic box office charts consistently for 26 weeks. Being in the top 20 consistently for 10 weeks. Awards attention definitely kept the film in the public consciousness, but the film didn’t truly become an awards frontrunner until several weeks after its release. Meaning it stayed running because of audience interest and critical praise. Considering the average theatrical window is currently around 30-45 days, both these films demonstrated extraordinary staying power.
International Box Office
Additionally, the international box office played a big role for both movies. Sinners was already successful, pulling in around 3 times its budget domestically, but with its international takings, it became the second-highest-grossing original movie worldwide in 2025. And while One Battle After Another was an overall flop, international screenings allowed the film to make its budget back.
Keeping Up
Matt Weisbecker has said that film marketing is primarily focused on the opening weekend, with promotion dropping significantly afterwards. This is incredibly counterintuitive. There is no way that everyone can see a movie during its opening weekend. Even after months of building anticipation. Considering the long tails that are provided to movies based on positive feedback from audiences and award bodies, surely this is proof that marketing up to release is not the sole way to maximise box office returns.
More marketing materials need to be spread throughout the theatrical run to keep more eyes on the film. This can then be used to take advantage of positive word of mouth. With focus needing to be put both online and in person to drive audience interest.
Likewise, even films that underperform domestically can recoup substantial sums at the international box office, which means international marketing needs to be maintained and further prioritised. Especially since it accounts for a huge amount of Hollywood box office and can also drive further interest down the line in international markets.
The US opening weekend is still a good data point. But considering the power that is demonstrated by international takings and word of mouth, it needs to stop being considered the make-or-break factor when it comes to judging if a movie is financially successful.
